ARI Company Profile and Key Details

ARI has shown mixed momentum, gaining 0.4% over the past week and 0.4% over the past quarter, though year-to-date performance is up 3.51%. Short-term trend indicators are bearishly aligned (SMA20 0.22%, SMA50 4.28%, SMA200 6.1%). The stock’s 14-day RSI is 57.81 (neutral), while the ATR of 0.21 points to higher daily volatility. The stock remains hovering near 52-week lows, trading -4.33% below its high and over 39.22% above its low. Average 10-day trading volume of 1.92 million shares is below the 3-month average of 4.38 million, indicating normal recent market interest.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. has 128.54 million shares outstanding. The public float is 102.04 million shares, elevated short interest at 5.12% of float. This equals 5.49 million shares. The short ratio is 1.75 days. Institutional investors hold 77.68% of the float. Insiders own 0.71%. Qatar Investment Authority holds 6.77 million shares, Athene Group Ltd has 2.31 million shares and ZIMAN RICHARD S has 935.60 thousand shares. Over the past six months, insider transactions show net selling. They sold 835.00 shares across 1 transactions.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NYSE:ARI) closed at $6.63 USD, losing -$0.05 (-0.75%) from the previous close of $6.68. The stock is currently within 5% of its 52-week low $6.43 and $11.24. With a market capitalization of about $868.18 million, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is classified as a small-cap and shows higher-than-market volatility (beta ~1.45). Key stats such as the average daily volume over the past year has been around 4.47 million shares, volume is running light vs its 52-week average. Headquartered in New York City, NY, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector and the REIT - Mortgage industry. Led by CEO Stuart A. Rothstein, the company employs approximately 0 people and listed since September 24, 2009. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. functions as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with a core focus on the U.S.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. last paid a dividend of 4.5 per share, this equals a trailing yield of roughly 11.51%. Dividend and splits history remains an important factor for investors monitoring long-term returns. A discounted cash flow model estimates fair value at around -$5.96. This means the shares are trading below this model’s fair value.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. generated EPS of $0.80 over the past year. Five-year average earnings growth is 143.06%. The latest quarter delivered EPS of $0.15. The next quarter is forecast at $0.27. Next year's EPS is expected at -$4.19. Analyst sentiment is bullish. Analyst rating data shows there are 4 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Buy ratings, 0 Hold ratings, 0 Sell rating and 0 Strong Sell ratings. Price targets range from $11.50 to $10.50. The high target offers 73.45% upside. The low target suggests 58.37% downside. The mean target is $11.00. This offers 65.91% upside. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. earnings surprise history is a mixed track record. The quarter that ended August 10, 2026, missed forecasts by 42.31%. The prior quarter beat by -24.14%. Over the last six quarters, Apple has recorded several small beats. These include -4.0% in April 24, 2025.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. trades at a P/E ratio of 8.45, slightly below the S&P 500 average, with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.35 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.7 suggesting the stock is closer to book value. The P/FCF stands at 20.04, also above market averages.

Our AI price prediction model suggests that Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. stock has strong potential for upside but may face short-term weakness followed by gains in the medium and long term. 2-Week Outlook: Projected decline of -0.3%, with price expected at $6.61 by September 25, 2026, within a range of $6.52 to $6.70 3-Month Outlook: Projected fall of -28.96%, reaching $4.71 by December 10, 2026, with a range of $4.16 to $5.07. 1-Year Outlook: Projected loss of -9.05%, with price at $6.03 by September 10, 2027, within a range of $0.00 to $7.18.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NYSE:ARI) shares are flat 3.51% year-to-date currently trading near 52-week highs band. Short-term momentum has been positive over the last quarter, despite recent volatility. Valuation shows Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. trading at a premium to the broader market with a P/E of 8.45. Analyst sentiment is bullish, with the majority of ratings in Outperform territory and a mean price target of $13.08, suggesting 97.29% upside. Our AI forecast model points to short-term weakness (-0.3% over two weeks), a medium-term fall (-28.96% over three months), and a longer-term loss (-9.05% over one year), with expected trading ranges indicating moderate volatility.